England and Wales’ rapidly shrinking Covid outbreaks were today laid bare by an interactive map that showed nearly 90 per cent of more than 7,000 neighbourhoods saw no deaths from the virus last month.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) data reveal April was the first month since August 2020 where the number of deaths was below the five-year average, with fewer than 1,000 virus-linked fatalities.
MailOnline analysis shows the proportion of English and Welsh neighbourhoods with zero deaths increased from 57.9 per cent in March to 87.6 per cent last month — some 6,301 areas.
Just ten areas saw three deaths each, which was the highest amount for any postcode.
They were: Hounslow West in London, Summerfield in Birmingham, Woodthorpe and Arno Vale in Gedling, Great Sankey in Warrington, Birley in Sheffield, Stornton and Sixfields in Northampton, Grimsargh and Goosnargh in Preston, Rusper, Faygate and Leechpool in Horsham, Bridlington West in East Riding and Canvey Island South West in Castle Point.
The ONS data also revealed that Covid was just the ninth leading cause of death in England last month — its lowest ranking since September 2020. Heart disease and dementia were the leading killers.
A total of 941 deaths were due to coronavirus in April, the equivalent of 2.4 per cent of all deaths registered in England. Another 35 were recorded in Wales.
Deaths have plunged over the past few months because of both strict lockdown restrictions and the mammoth vaccination drive, which has seen almost 37million adults jabbed.
It came as a SAGE adviser and University College London epidemiologist Professor Andrew Hayward warned today that Britain’s third wave of Covid may have already begun because of the rapid spread of the Indian variant.
However, his comments come amid growing optimism from No10 that the Indian variant won’t jeopardise plans to ease all lockdown restrictions on June 21, despite fears the highly-transmissible strain could scupper ‘freedom day’.
Boris Johnson last night told the powerful 1922 committee of Tory MPs he was ‘even more cautiously optimistic’ it can go ahead. He said: ‘I know there are anxieties about new variants. But we can see nothing to suggest that we have to deviate from the road map.’
And Professor Hayward’s comments came just hours before a King’s College London’s symptom-tracking app predicted Covid cases are not rising nationally, despite surging infections with the Indian variant. Academics estimated around 2,750 people are falling ill with the coronavirus every day across the UK, with the figure having barely changed in a week.
Professor Tim Spector, the epidemiologist who leads the app, said B.1.617.2 ‘hasn’t altered numbers significantly’ and outbreaks remain focused in hotspots, such as Bolton. ‘While the outbreaks remain localised and UK numbers are steady and most cases appear mild, it’s highly unlikely to cause the NHS to be overrun or stop us coming out of lockdown,’ he said.
ZOE and King’s College London’s symptom tracking app estimated there were 2,750 new cases of the virus every day, the equivalent of one in 1,796 Britons suffering symptomatic Covid in the week to May 15. They said this was not a significant change from last week. Professor Tim Spector said the Indian variant ‘hasn’t altered the numbers significantly
Boris Johnson (pictured left, leaving No10 today) last night told MPs he is ‘even more optimistic’ the June 21 lockdown easings can go ahead. Matt Hancock (pictured right, on Downing Street today) revealed to MPs yesterday are now almost 3,000 cases of the Indian variant in the UK, with the figure having quadrupled in a fortnight
Officials say the Indian variant of Covid may have spread rapidly in the UK because it got into multi-generational households, and there were a large number of imports as people rushed home after India was added to the ‘red list’
The leading cause of death was ischaemic heart diseases (4,144 deaths), followed by dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (4,018 deaths).
Covid was the leading cause of death in England every month from November 2020 to February 2021. In March it dropped from top spot to third place, before falling to ninth place in last month.
April was also the first month where deaths in England were below the five-year average (6.1 per cent lower) since August 2020, the ONS said.
The overall mortality rate was 851.2 deaths per 100,000 people: the lowest mortality rate for the month of April since the ONS data time series began in 2001.
In Wales, Covid was the 18th leading cause of death in April, accounting for 35 deaths, or 1.4 per cent of the total. Ischaemic heart diseases was the leading cause (300 deaths), followed by dementia and Alzheimer’s (267).
Covid was the leading cause of death in Wales from November 2020 to February 2021, and the third leading cause in March.
The overall mortality rate in Wales last month was 920.0 deaths per 100,000 people – again, the lowest since the ONS time series began in 2001.
It came as a SAGE adviser warned today that Britain’s third wave of Covid may have already begun because of the rapid spread of the Indian variant — despite data showing cases nationally are still flat and one top expert saying the mutant strain shouldn’t overwhelm the NHS.
University College London epidemiologist Professor Andrew Hayward made the claim when asked whether the UK was at the beginning of another wave. ‘I think so,’ he told BBC Breakfast. ‘What we can see is that this strain can circulate very effectively.
‘Although it was originally imported through travel to India it spread fairly effectively first of all within households after that and now more broadly within communities. So I don’t really see why it wouldn’t continue to spread in other parts of the country.
He added: ‘Obviously we are doing everything we can to contain that, but it is likely more generalised measures may start to be needed to control it.’
The Indian variant has already spread to at least 48 countries, figures show, and has been spotted on every continent except Antarctica.
It is now behind one in five infections in the UK and has spread to 40 per cent of local authorities in England.
But King’s College London experts say cases nationwide are still flat, and that outbreaks remain localised in areas such as Bolton and Blackburn.
Professor Spector said: ‘There has been no significant change in rates of Covid from last week according to ZOE Covid Study data.
‘The number of daily new cases is around 2,750, which remains fairly low and virtually unchanged from last week. This shows that the Indian variant hasn’t altered the numbers significantly
‘We’re monitoring the Indian variant closely and so far we see only localised outbreaks, or hotspots.
Professor Andrew Hayward (left), an epidemiologist at University College London and SAGE adviser, warned today Britain’s third wave had already begun. But his comments came just hours before separate data from King’s College London estimated Covid cases are still flat despite surging infections with the variant. Professor Tim Spector (right) said data showed outbreaks of the variant remained localised and there was no sign at present that it would overwhelm the NHS
‘Not only in Bedford and Bolton, which we saw a week ago, but our data shows Newport in Wales, Glasgow and neighbouring areas like East Dunbartonshire or Lanarkshire in Scotland, Aberdeen, Leeds and neighbouring authorities like Kirklees and Wakefield.
‘We noticed the same trend previously with outbreaks of the South African and Brazilian variants, but these remained local and didn’t translate into wider cases countrywide.’
SAGE scientists had predicted there would be a third wave of the pandemic as restrictions were eased and more people were allowed to mix.
But questions remain over how big the outbreak will be because vaccines will stop many people from catching the disease and being hospitalised.
Government advisers don’t believe the resurgence will be anywhere near as bad as January’s crisis because of jabs and warmer weather.
Whitehall insiders say the ‘mood music has definitely improved’ in the face of fresh evidence which suggests the current crop of vaccines work against the mutant strain.
SAGE advisers also believe it may now be just 30 per cent more contagious than the Kent variant which triggered the UK’s devastating second wave.
One senior official told Sky News the updated transmissibility estimate would allow the unlocking to go ahead.
Matt Hancock said last night no decision on relaxing the final set of restrictions will be made until June 14, a week before ‘freedom day’.
But the plans could still be diluted — which could see the end of social distancing, mask wearing and working from home guidance pushed back to a later date.
Ministers are also considering asking high-risk venues such as nightclubs to ensure people are either vaccinated or tested before they enter.
Almost 3,000 cases of the Indian variant have been detected in the UK, with the figure having quadrupled in a fortnight.
Surge testing has been deployed in Bedford, Burnley, Hounslow, Kirklees, Leicester and North Tyneside to root out cases of the strain.
It comes as ministers accelerate the vaccination roll-out with plans to reach all over-18s within a month, with over-30s set to be offered their first dose by the end of May.
More than 36.9million Britons — or seven in ten adults — have already had at least a jab. England’s roll-out was expanded to 34 and 35-year-olds today.